Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 198.722645 243.356751 299.339336 376.138264 481.081699 6.230980e+02 8.365073e+02
2025-01-05 145.864595 195.490001 266.105768 378.532607 562.699542 8.727737e+02 1.488348e+03
2025-01-12 120.656880 172.079091 252.111079 394.668215 665.149457 1.217929e+03 2.670131e+03
2025-01-19 100.288044 149.169040 230.103962 386.439283 718.284467 1.513992e+03 4.226408e+03
2025-01-26 92.939585 144.518626 235.808892 428.894820 896.788085 2.272581e+03 9.149436e+03
2025-02-02 86.142077 139.001389 238.006149 464.858634 1086.808804 3.337795e+03 2.132267e+04
2025-02-09 79.817928 132.882009 237.210615 493.837922 1283.319084 4.815586e+03 5.634138e+04
2025-02-16 73.556366 125.629163 232.215924 510.790264 1460.951170 6.694158e+03 1.744340e+05
2025-02-23 67.980173 118.705121 226.262834 523.128101 1638.645495 9.244016e+03 8.135323e+05
2025-03-02 61.578292 109.132804 212.402582 508.359939 1700.203449 1.128742e+04 4.714961e+06
2025-03-09 56.167556 100.860010 200.002942 493.991123 1756.917406 1.374452e+04 1.972546e+08
2025-03-16 51.110797 92.699103 186.467580 471.953175 1762.829331 1.585711e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 50.313632 93.736676 196.066734 531.333788 2290.287826 3.270638e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 47.064513 88.972394 190.160575 535.683685 2515.520872 4.968749e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 44.977556 86.534079 189.878693 561.325272 2946.939053 9.553601e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 41.781984 81.145139 180.604697 548.282009 3068.352703 1.387138e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 41.391844 82.263400 189.684186 616.088759 4091.128609 5.921032e+05 NaN
2025-04-27 40.570081 82.227347 195.490028 674.369425 5276.691165 5.023105e+06 NaN
2025-05-04 39.443134 81.284650 198.405083 721.872149 6597.626586 1.144686e+09 NaN
2025-05-11 37.948354 79.224707 197.434578 749.878003 7829.465163 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 36.417490 76.892662 195.157802 770.359684 9123.441870 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 34.235676 72.635391 185.806199 745.853297 9350.751282 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 32.257189 68.740953 177.119197 722.124539 9555.404433 NaN NaN